Two design patterns for visualising the parameter space of complex systems

A key feature of complex systems is that their behaviour can vary significantly depending on their location in parameter space. A major challenge for researchers is to understand how combinations of system parameters influence behaviour; that is, to understand the shape of parameter space. Tools for visualising the structure and dynamics of complex systems and the shape of their parameter spaces play an important role in addressing this challenge. Many of these tools are developed to address problems in specific domains. If complex systems share certain general properties that transcend their specific domain, it should be possible to share tools for understanding these systems between domains. One technique that has been proposed for achieving this is the use of design patterns

Artificial Ontogenies: A Computational Model of the Control and Evolution of Development

Understanding the behaviour of biological systems is a challenging task. Gene regulation, development and evolution are each a product of nonlinear interactions between many individual agents: genes, cells or organisms. Moreover, these three processes are not isolated, but interact with one another in an important fashion. The development of an organism involves complex patterns of dynamic behaviour at the genetic level. The gene networks that produce this behaviour are subject to mutations that can alter the course of development, resulting in the production of novel morphologies. Evolution occurs when these novel morphologies are favoured by natural selection and survive to pass on their genes to future generations. Computational models can assist us to understand biological systems by providing a framework within which their behaviour can be explored. Many natural processes, including gene regulation and development, have a computational element to their control. Constructing formal models of these systems enables their behaviour to be simulated, observed and quantified on a scale not otherwise feasible. This thesis uses a computational simulation methodology to explore the relationship between development and evolution. An important question in evolutionary biology is how to explain the direction of evolution. Conventional explanations of evolutionary history have focused on the role of natural selection in orienting evolution. More recently, it has been argued that the nature of development, and the way it changes in response to mutation, may also be a significant factor. A network-lineage model of artificial ontogenies is described that incorporates a developmental mapping between the dynamics of a gene network and a cell lineage representation of a phenotype. Three series of simulation studies are reported, exploring: (a) the relationship between the structure of a gene network and its dynamic behaviour; (b) the characteristic distributions of ontogenies and phenotypes generated by the dynamics of gene networks; (c) the effect of these characteristic distributions on the evolution of ontogeny. The results of these studies indicate that the model networks are capable of generating a diverse range of stable behaviours, and possess a small yet significant sensitivity to perturbation. In the context of developmental control, the intrinsic dynamics of the model networks predispose the production of ontogenies with a modular, quasi-systematic structure. This predisposition is reflected in the structure of variation available for selection in an adaptive search process, resulting in the evolution of ontogenies biased towards simplicity. These results suggest a possible explanation for the levels of ontogenetic complexity observed in biological organisms: that they may be a product of the network architecture of developmental control. By quantifying complexity, variation and bias, the network-lineage model described in this thesis provides a computational method for investigating the effects of development on the direction of evolution. In doing so, it establishes a viable framework for simulating computational aspects of complex biological systems

Emergence of heterogeneity and political organization in information exchange networks

We present a simple model of the emergence of the division of labor and the development of a system of resource subsidy from an agent-based model of directed resource production with variable degrees of trust between the agents. The model has three distinct phases, corresponding to different forms of societal organization: disconnected (independent agents), homogeneous cooperative (collective state), and inhomogeneous cooperative (collective state with a leader). Our results indicate that such levels of organization arise generically as a collective effect from interacting agent dynamics, and may have applications in a variety of systems including social insects and microbial communities.Comment: 10 pages, 6 figure

Characterising pandemic severity and transmissibility from data collected during first few hundred studies

Early estimation of the probable impact of a pandemic influenza outbreak can assist public health authorities to ensure that response measures are proportionate to the scale of the threat. Recently, frameworks based on transmissibility and severity have been proposed for initial characterization of pandemic impact. Data requirements to inform this assessment may be provided by "First Few Hundred" (FF100) studies, which involve surveillance-possibly in person, or via telephone-of household members of confirmed cases. This process of enhanced case finding enables detection of cases across the full spectrum of clinical severity, including the date of symptom onset. Such surveillance is continued until data for a few hundred cases, or satisfactory characterization of the pandemic strain, has been achieved. We present a method for analysing these data, at the household level, to provide a posterior distribution for the parameters of a model that can be interpreted in terms of severity and transmissibility of a pandemic strain. We account for imperfect case detection, where individuals are only observed with some probability that can increase after a first case is detected. Furthermore, we test this methodology using simulated data generated by an independent model, developed for a different purpose and incorporating more complex disease and social dynamics. Our method recovers transmissibility and severity parameters to a high degree of accuracy and provides a computationally efficient approach to estimating the impact of an outbreak in its early stages.Andrew J. Black, Nicholas Gear, James M. McCaw, Jodie McVernon, Joshua V. Ros

A GLP1 receptor agonist diabetes drug ameliorates neurodegeneration in a mouse model of infantile neurometabolic disease

Infantile neuroaxonal dystrophy (INAD) is a rare paediatric neurodegenerative condition caused by mutations in the PLA2G6 gene, which is also the causative gene for PARK14-linked young adult-onset dystonia parkinsonism. INAD patients usually die within their first decade of life, and there are currently no effective treatments available. GLP1 receptor (GLP-1R) agonists are licensed for treating type 2 diabetes mellitus but have also demonstrated neuroprotective properties in a clinical trial for Parkinson's disease. Therefore, we evaluated the therapeutic efficacy of a new recently licensed GLP-1R agonist diabetes drug in a mouse model of INAD. Systemically administered high-dose semaglutide delivered weekly to juvenile INAD mice improved locomotor function and extended the lifespan. An investigation into the mechanisms underlying these therapeutic effects revealed that semaglutide significantly increased levels of key neuroprotective molecules while decreasing those involved in pro-neurodegenerative pathways. The expression of mediators in both the apoptotic and necroptotic pathways were also significantly reduced in semaglutide treated mice. A reduction of neuronal loss and neuroinflammation was observed. Finally, there was no obvious inflammatory response in wild-type mice associated with the repeated high doses of semaglutide used in this study

Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region

Background: Effective response to emerging infectious disease (EID) threats relies on health care systems that can detect and contain localised outbreaks before they reach a national or international scale. The Asia-Pacific region contains low and middle income countries in which the risk of EID outbreaks is elevated and whose health care systems may require international support to effectively detect and respond to such events. The absence of comprehensive data on populations, health care systems and disease characteristics in this region makes risk assessment and decisions about the provision of such support challenging.\ud \ud Methodology/principal findings: We describe a mathematical modelling framework that can inform this process by integrating available data sources, systematically explore the effects of uncertainty, and provide estimates of outbreak risk under a range of intervention scenarios. We illustrate the use of this framework in the context of a potential importation of Ebola Virus Disease into the Asia-Pacific region. Results suggest that, across a wide range of plausible scenarios, preemptive interventions supporting the timely detection of early cases provide substantially greater reductions in the probability of large outbreaks than interventions that support health care system capacity after an outbreak has commenced.\ud \ud Conclusions/significance: Our study demonstrates how, in the presence of substantial uncertainty about health care system infrastructure and other relevant aspects of disease control, mathematical models can be used to assess the constraints that limited resources place upon the ability of local health care systems to detect and respond to EID outbreaks in a timely and effective fashion. Our framework can help evaluate the relative impact of these constraints to identify resourcing priorities for health care system support, in order to inform principled and quantifiable decision making

Mechanism of Radiation-Induced Bystander Effects: A Unifying Model

The radiation-induced bystander effect represents a paradigm shift in our understanding of the radiobiological effects of ionizing radiation, in that extranuclear and extracellular events may also contribute to the final biological consequences of exposure to low doses of radiation. Although radiation-induced bystander effects have been well documented in a variety of biological systems, the mechanism is not known. It is likely that multiple pathways are involved in the bystander phenomenon, and different cell types respond differently to bystander signalling. Using cDNA microarrays, a number of cellular signalling genes, including cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2), have been shown to be causally linked to the bystander phenomenon. The observation that inhibition of the phosphorylation of extracellular signal-related kinase (ERK) suppressed the bystander response further confirmed the important role of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signalling cascade in the bystander process. Furthermore, cells deficient in mitochondrial DNA showed a significantly reduced response to bystander signalling, suggesting a functional role of mitochondria in the signalling process. Inhibitors of nitric oxide (NO) synthase (NOS) and mitochondrial calcium uptake provided evidence that NO and calcium signalling are part of the signalling cascade. The bystander observations imply that the relevant target for various radiobiological endpoints is larger than an individual cell. A better understanding of the cellular and molecular mechanisms of the bystander phenomenon, together with evidence of their occurrence in-vivo, will allow us to formulate a more accurate model for assessing the health effects of low doses of ionizing radiation

The State of the Art in Multilayer Network Visualization

Modelling relationships between entities in real-world systems with a simple graph is a standard approach. However, reality is better embraced as several interdependent subsystems (or layers). Recently the concept of a multilayer network model has emerged from the field of complex systems. This model can be applied to a wide range of real-world datasets. Examples of multilayer networks can be found in the domains of life sciences, sociology, digital humanities and more. Within the domain of graph visualization there are many systems which visualize datasets having many characteristics of multilayer graphs. This report provides a state of the art and a structured analysis of contemporary multilayer network visualization, not only for researchers in visualization, but also for those who aim to visualize multilayer networks in the domain of complex systems, as well as those developing systems across application domains. We have explored the visualization literature to survey visualization techniques suitable for multilayer graph visualization, as well as tools, tasks, and analytic techniques from within application domains. This report also identifies the outstanding challenges for multilayer graph visualization and suggests future research directions for addressing them

Integrating BDI agents with Agent-based simulation platforms

Agent-Based Models (ABMs) is increasingly being used for exploring and supporting decision making about social science scenarios involving modelling of human agents. However existing agent-based simulation platforms (e.g., SWARM, Repast) provide limited support for the simulation of more complex cognitive agents required by such scenarios. We present a framework that allows Belief-Desire Intention (BDI) cognitive agents to be embedded in an ABM system. Architecturally, this means that the "brains" of an agent can be modelled in the BDI system in the usual way, while the "body" exists in the ABM system. The architecture is exible in that the ABM can still have non-BDI agents in the simulation, and the BDI-side can have agents that do not have a physical counterpart (such as an organisation). The framework addresses a key integration challenge of coupling event-based BDI systems, with time-stepped ABM systems. Our framework is modular and supports integration off-the-shelf BDI systems with off-the-shelf ABM systems. The framework is Open Source, and all integrations and applications are available for use by the modelling community